Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 13.427845 15.369372 17.462240 19.882138 22.599119 25.551441 28.998264
2025-03-16 10.333020 12.908968 15.903471 19.626405 24.114325 29.332465 35.840471
2025-03-23 8.916857 11.781853 15.275955 19.822131 25.548766 32.488093 41.494620
2025-03-30 8.015058 11.128797 15.089875 20.451985 27.467655 36.274836 48.098733
2025-04-06 7.024849 10.199866 14.394562 20.276564 28.234265 38.537688 52.782586
2025-04-13 5.929816 8.991556 13.186961 19.271878 27.770048 39.098953 55.198914
2025-04-20 5.479630 8.624526 13.070549 19.706495 29.226177 42.230981 61.141734
2025-04-27 5.076534 8.276174 12.934259 20.075352 30.577906 45.252823 67.046707
2025-05-04 4.598511 7.761937 12.502120 19.961791 31.201579 47.252990 71.579619
2025-05-11 4.140542 7.230205 11.991645 19.676869 31.529107 48.812130 75.516342
2025-05-18 3.812032 6.871405 11.711149 19.708243 32.308925 51.038638 80.493680
2025-05-25 3.563299 6.618604 11.572329 19.939501 33.389327 53.739307 86.268554
2025-06-01 3.290789 6.306679 11.323157 19.990901 34.213240 56.127004 91.743794
2025-06-08 2.997582 5.930599 10.937347 19.788644 34.614841 57.877900 96.319260
2025-06-15 2.802788 5.710108 10.792360 19.966810 35.624839 60.600077 102.491373
2025-06-22 2.700474 5.649877 10.917667 20.607510 37.425049 64.646079 110.914736
2025-06-29 2.481409 5.346792 10.587409 20.428595 37.825537 66.438481 115.780494
2025-07-06 2.166852 4.826113 9.820592 19.417882 36.732622 65.717548 116.501221
2025-07-13 2.075620 4.742772 9.855587 19.855188 38.178398 69.266179 124.394163
2025-07-20 1.982448 4.646286 9.857006 20.226634 39.519726 72.685466 132.192760
2025-07-27 1.838907 4.429887 9.609801 20.112272 39.973900 74.598309 137.503445
2025-08-03 1.688693 4.184065 9.285057 19.825431 40.090502 75.920466 141.838372
2025-08-10 1.584467 4.029353 9.130728 19.857014 40.793311 78.289602 148.065335